perjantai 6. toukokuuta 2011

Libyans - Do we really want to help them?

The world's response to the Libya conflict has been inadequate at best and laughable at the worst. We have a real chance of getting rid off one tyrant and for the most part we are sitting on our hands. Everyone seems to agree that Gaddafi is a bad guy and needs to be removed but no one is really willing to do anything about.

The current effort in Libya is being limited to air strikes against Gaddafi's forces and various economic sanctions including an arms embargo. The first effort seems to be by and large used as a live fire training exercise for those air forces of the world that don't get to see action that often, like the Swedish Air Force which I believe is currently flying some of its first combat flights ever. This is helpful to the rebels in the sense that it makes harder for Gaddafi's forces to operate offensively, but it doesn't really help the rebels in taking Gaddafi's positions either.

In this age of high technology it is easy to focus on all the cool technical gadgets that for the most part are used by the air forces of the world and forget the fact that so far air power hasn't won a single war yet and taht in the end the ones who do put an end to a war are always infantrymen. The Second World War didn't end when the RAF bombed Berlin to ruins, but it sure as hell did when the foot soldiers of the Red Army put their flag over the Reichstag. Vietnam war is the ultimate example of the futility of bombing, more bombs were dropped on Vietnam than on Germany and Japan combined during WWII and still the Americans lost.

If we want to really help the rebels, we have two options, either send ground troops ourself to crush Gaddafi or help the rebels to become an effective fighting force in themselves. The first option requires us to think long and hard is getting rid of Gaddafi worth the blood, sweat and tears that a ground war eventually brings. Make no mistake in spite of all the technology we have fighting for the infantry man is as brutal as it ever was. Executing this option shouldn't be too hard. We have the EU Battlegroups that were, if I recall correctly, established to deal with stuff like this. But it seams that now that the moment has come to send our boys to fight and die, we hesitate.

The second option would be to send far limited number of people to train, equip and organize the rebels into more effective fighting units. This would require us to break the arms embargo that we have established and finding people to co-operate with amongst the rebels, because we sure as won't want to train some wannabe-Osama. This again might be more difficult than we think.

But whatever we do, we must deliberate the options carefully, make the decision that we think is the best and then see the thing through. If we want a ground war, then we must accept the fact that there will be body bags coming back from there. If we don't want a ground war we have to find alternative means to help rebels, if we even want to help them in the first place. But this sort willy nilly, lets try to eat the cake and save it at the same time mentality is not going to resolve this conflict, it will only prolong it. Unless Gaddafi is hit by a bomb, the current strategy of aerial bombing is only going to maintain the status quo, it will make Gaddafi too weak to crush the rebels, but not weak enough to be crushed by the rebels, making it impossible for either side to win.

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